Business-case scenario
Compare business scenarios using stated inputs, bounded arithmetic, and an explanation of what changes the outcome.
Try this workflow ↗A worked starting point
Harbor Distribution wants coordinator time for its supplier-query backlog. The base case assumes 100 cases per month, 30 minutes released per case, $60 per hour of capacity value, and $1,500 in monthly operating costs. Implementation, integration and training cost another $6,000 once. The Finance Manager compares a conservative 15-minute case before deciding whether to fund a measured pilot.
A worked result
Recommendation
Fund a limited measurement pilot before expanding. The base case could release useful capacity for your supplier-query backlog, but the conservative case only covers the monthly operating cost and leaves the $6,000 setup cost unrecovered.
| Scenario | Hours released per month | Capacity value at $60 per hour | Value after $1,500 monthly cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base: 100 cases, 30 minutes each | 50 | $3,000 | $1,500 |
| Conservative: 100 cases, 15 minutes each | 25 | $1,500 | $0 |
Base arithmetic: 100 × 30 ÷ 60 × $60 − $1,500 = $1,500 per month.
Conservative arithmetic: 100 × 15 ÷ 60 × $60 − $1,500 = $0 per month.
The separate $6,000 implementation, integration and training cost must be part of the decision. Use the four-week pilot to measure time released and correction rates, and confirm that the team can use the released hours on the backlog.
Limit: These figures value capacity. They do not establish cash savings or guarantee a forecast.
How it works
Collect assumptions, calculate scenarios, follow the relevant condition, and ask XSIX Deep to interpret the result and its uncertainties.
What you take away
Scenario brief, with the opportunity to inspect the workflow steps and review the result before relying on it.
What to keep in mind
These are capacity-value scenarios, not forecasts or promised cash savings. One-time setup cost matters as well as monthly cost. Measure handling time and correction rates before deciding whether to expand.
Take the next step
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